Market Participants Survey results - April 2026

Overview

This survey forms part of the Bank’s quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers’ understanding of market expectations. The questions involve topics that are widely discussed in the public domain, and never presume any particular policy action. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are not involved in the survey’s design.

Survey respondents originate from a broad set of market participant firms, selected by the Bank based on a number of criteria, including: (i) relevant market activity in UK rates or money markets; (ii) expertise in UK rates markets and/or UK monetary policy; (iii) willingness to participate regularly in the survey and in the Bank’s market intelligence activity; and (iv) membership of one of the Bank’s external market committees.

Please contact MarketParticipantsSurvey@bankofengland.co.uk for queries or for further information.

Survey results

The survey was open from 15–17 April 2026 with responses being received from 77 market participants. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported.^{footnote [1]} For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weightings or probabilities are reported. For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities – the respondent count against each option is reported.

Question 1: Expectations for Bank Rate

1a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for Bank Rate after the following MPC meetings.

	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
30 April 2026 MPC	3.75	3.75	3.75	77
18 June 2026 MPC	3.75	3.75	3.75	77
30 July 2026 MPC	3.75	3.75	3.75	77
17 September 2026 MPC	3.75	3.75	3.75	77
5 November 2026 MPC	3.50	3.75	3.75	77
17 December 2026 MPC	3.50	3.75	3.75	77
4 February 2027 MPC	3.50	3.50	3.75	77
18 March 2027 MPC	3.25	3.50	3.75	77
One year ahead (April 2027 MPC)	3.25	3.50	3.75	77
End-2027 Q2	3.25	3.25	3.50	77
End-2027 Q3	3.00	3.25	3.50	77
End-2027 Q4	3.00	3.25	3.50	77
Two years ahead (April 2028)	3.00	3.25	3.50	74
Three years ahead (April 2029)	3.00	3.25	3.50	73
Five years ahead (April 2031)	3.00	3.25	3.50	71

1b) And where do you see the level of Bank Rate at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary (often referred to as the neutral, natural or equilibrium rate)?

25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
3.00	3.25	3.50	76

1ci) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 30 April 2026 meeting. ⁽^a⁾

	Mean probability (%)
3.50%	1.0
3.75%	89.0
4.00%	9.8
4.25%	0.1

(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.50% and >5.00% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question.

1cii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 18 June 2026 meeting. ⁽^a⁾

	Mean probability (%)
3.25%	0.2
3.50%	5.9
3.75%	67.6
4.00%	24.7
4.25%	1.4

(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.50% and >5.00% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question.

1ciii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 17 December 2026 meeting. ⁽^a⁾

	Mean probability (%)
<3.00%	0.9
3.00%	2.5
3.25%	7.4
3.50%	20.7
3.75%	35.9
4.00%	20.0
4.25%	9.8
4.50%	1.9
>4.50%	0.9

(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.50% and >5.00% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been aggregated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question.

1d) Since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, UK short rates had increased. For example, the one-year, one-year forward swap rate had increased 76 basis points since 27 February, as of 5pm on Tuesday 14 April.

Please weight the following factors in terms of their importance in driving this move in short rates. ⁽^a⁾

	Mean weighting (%)
Direct impact on inflation from rising energy costs and indirect pass-through to wider prices	37.9
Perceived risks of second-round effects in wage and price-setting	20.3
Changes in perceptions of the MPC reaction function	15.3
Adjustments to broader required risk compensation	6.7
Market technical and positioning effects	18.9
Other	1.0

(a) Mean weightings are rounded to one decimal place. 77 respondents answered this question.

Question 2: Macroeconomic outlook

2a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of CPI inflation – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons. ⁽^a⁾

	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
End-2026 Q2	2.8	3.0	3.3	71
End-2026 Q3	3.1	3.4	3.7	71
End-2026 Q4	3.1	3.4	3.7	71
End-2027 Q1	2.9	3.1	3.5	71
One year ahead	2.5	2.8	3.1	71
Two years ahead	2.0	2.2	2.5	68
Three years ahead	2.0	2.0	2.5	68
Five years ahead	2.0	2.0	2.3	67

(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place.

2bi) Please assign percentage probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation three years ahead. ⁽^a⁾

	Mean probability (%)
<=1.00%	1.9
1.01%–1.40%	3.0
1.41%–1.80%	10.4
1.81%–2.20%	35.0
2.21%–2.60%	27.4
2.61%–3.00%	14.8
>3.00%	7.5

(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place. 69 respondents answered this question.

2bii) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation on average from 5 years ahead to 10 years ahead (ie analogous to the five-year, five-year forward rate). ⁽^a⁾

	Mean probability (%)
<=1.00%	1.3
1.01%–1.40%	2.6
1.41%–1.80%	10.2
1.81%–2.20%	41.1
2.21%–2.60%	25.5
2.61%–3.00%	12.5
>3.00%	6.9

(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place. 65 respondents answered this question.

2c) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of UK GDP growth – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons.

	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
2026 GDP growth	0.60	0.80	1.00	69
2027 GDP growth	1.00	1.10	1.25	69
2028 GDP growth	1.20	1.30	1.50	64
Long run (potential)	1.20	1.40	1.50	66

2d) When forming your expectations for Bank Rate and CPI inflation (questions 1a and 2a), which of the options below is most consistent with your assumption for the Brent crude oil spot price at the time horizons specified?⁽^a⁾

	Count
	3 months ahead	12 months ahead
$50–$74	2	32
$75–$99	58	41
$100–$124	13	0

(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different outcomes spanned <$50 and >$150 at the extremes. Results have been truncated where the respondent count was zero at both horizons.

2e) The March MPC minutes noted that ‘the MPC was assessing a range of risks to medium-term inflation in both directions’, in particular:
• Increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects in wage and price-setting.
• Implications for inflation from the weakening in economic activity that was likely to result from higher energy costs.

Which of the following best characterises your assessment of the outlook for medium-term inflation?

	Count
On balance, upward pressure via second-round effects poses a greater risk than downward pressure from a weakening in economic activity	34
Neither risk is seen to dominate	15
On balance, downward pressure from a weakening in economic activity poses a greater risk than upward pressure via second-round effects	27

2f) When considering the MPC’s overall package of communications, please weight the following factors in terms of importance in informing your current perceptions of the MPC reaction function? ⁽^a⁾

	Mean weighting (%)
The MPC’s collective communications (eg Monetary Policy Summary, Monetary Policy Overview)	36.8
Vote split at most recent meetings	26.5
Individual member communications (eg paragraphs in the Minutes, speeches)	35.6
Other	1.1

(a) Mean weightings are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question.

Question 3: Expectations for balance sheet and gilt yields

3a) Please provide the annual reduction in the stock of gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility, comprising both maturing gilts and gilt sales in initial purchase proceeds terms, that you see as most likely over the following annual review cycles (£ billions).

	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
October 2026–September 2027	31	50	60	66
October 2027–September 2028	28	50	50	66
October 2028–September 2029	34	40	50	65
October 2029–September 2030	27	30	50	65

3b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the 10-year gilt yield at the following points in the future.

	25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
End-June 2026	4.51	4.70	4.80	70
End-December 2026	4.40	4.50	4.70	70
End-June 2027	4.20	4.33	4.50	70

Question 4: Expectations for exchange rates

4a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of GBPUSD one year ahead.

25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
1.3200	1.3500	1.3800	65

4b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of EURGBP one year ahead.

25th percentile	50th percentile	75th percentile	Number of responses
0.8600	0.8800	0.8900	65

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