AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Pause & Markets: Trump said there’s a “good chance” of progress with Iran as both sides keep attacks on hold for a third day, easing oil pressure and lifting stocks; Brent slid below $90 and gold held near $4,000 ahead of the Fed. Energy Supply Risk: Traders are preparing to import more crude outside the Middle East as Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supply, with shipping reroutes adding cost and time. Saudi-Backed Capital Flows: Brookfield raised about $2bn for a PIF-anchored Middle East private equity fund targeting Saudi and wider regional deals. Corporate Impact of the Crisis: Italy’s Saipem cut 2026 earnings guidance due to Middle East-related costs, while Confindustria warned Italy’s growth outlook is deteriorating amid geopolitical pressure. Egypt Power & Policy: Egypt’s summer blackouts returned in multiple governorates, while Marcos in the Philippines pushed oil-price relief measures and a P58bn local aid fund tied to the Middle East conflict. West Bank Banking Shock: Israeli banks’ planned cut of Palestinian correspondent banking threatens a West Bank economic squeeze.

US-Iran De-escalation & Oil: Oil slid sharply as the US and Iran paused strikes, easing supply-disruption fears even as Yemen’s Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi-linked assets and shipping. Fed & Rates Watch: Markets head into the Federal Reserve meeting with uncertainty over how renewed Middle East risk and oil moves will shape the next rate decision. Mediation Progress: Iran says it is not in direct talks with the US, while regional mediators (Qatar and Pakistan) report “significant” progress toward renewed negotiations and a strained interim ceasefire. Egypt Economic Control: President El Sisi ratified a law expanding powers of the army-linked Future of Egypt Authority to run major economic activities, including state assets and investment zones. Turkey-Israel Politics: Israeli officials allege Turkey is using social media to influence Israel’s upcoming elections and deepen internal divisions. Regional Trade & Logistics: Egypt is working with DP World to boost exports to Africa, while Saudia Cargo launched a Riyadh–Melbourne freighter route to expand Middle East trade links. Business & Markets: The Philippine Stock Exchange rose on bargain-hunting as oil eased; in Israel, Saab won a $1.04bn Middle East order for GlobalEye surveillance aircraft.

Iran-US De-escalation: The US paused its near two-week strikes on Iran for a second straight day, with Tehran saying it will halt attacks as long as Washington does, while mediators push talks around the Strait of Hormuz. Energy & Markets: Oil volatility remains the big business risk: Brent slid toward the low-$90s after the pause, but shipping disruptions and Red Sea/Houthi attacks keep supply fears alive, feeding inflation and rate worries. Qatar Banking: QNB opened a new QNB First premium branch in Msheireb Downtown Doha, expanding its exclusive wealth-focused network. Qatar/Saudi Nuclear Deal Fallout: The US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement moves forward via safeguards and a US congressional review process, reshaping regional strategic calculations. Corporate Moves: Nestlé carved out its waters business into a JV (Peranel) and flagged further disposals, while restructuring costs weighed on profit. Tech & Investment: South Korea’s stocks rose on the Iran pause and a massive AI semiconductor cooperation push, while a separate VC analysis says most risk capital is still flowing to AI. Real Economy: Japan’s services producer prices jumped, with Middle East-linked freight costs cited as a driver.

US-Iran Pause & Munitions Worries: The US paused airstrikes on Iran for two nights as Washington weighs escalation risks, including depleted Patriot interceptor and air-defense stockpiles, while Iran says it has halted retaliatory attacks against Gulf states and US interests. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Shipping through Hormuz slowed to near standstill as tanker attacks and a US naval blockade kept oil above $100/bbl, reshaping trade routes and raising costs. Red Sea Spillover: Despite the US lull, Iran-backed Houthis hit Saudi oil installations, keeping the Red Sea a fresh flashpoint. Caspian Sea Tensions: Iran condemned a Ukrainian strike on a Caspian vessel and Zelensky accused Russia of aiding Iran, raising fears of a wider maritime front. Regional Diplomacy: Syria’s transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said Damascus is working on a security agreement with Israel with third-party participation, while Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi heads to Türkiye for talks on security, energy and trade. Business & Finance: Israel’s Innovation Authority launched a NIS 1bn grant program for tech startups hit by the shekel-dollar squeeze; Dubai’s property market cooled as the Iran-Israel war dampened home demand. Energy & Trade Moves: Iraq plans new maritime passenger routes linking it with Iran, Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, aiming to boost tourism and regional connectivity. UK Rates Watch: The Bank of England is set to hold interest rates as Middle East conflict risks feed into inflation fears.

Iran-US Tensions: Trump paused planned strikes on Iran after Pentagon warnings about interceptor shortages, but said full-scale war could resume if Washington doesn’t get “100%” of what it wants, as the US blockade stays in full effect. Red Sea & Gulf Shipping: Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil sites (Yanbu, Jizan) and warned of action around Bab el-Mandeb, while Iran accused Ukraine of striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian. Regional Energy Pressure: Oil markets stayed jittery as escalation risk fed into shipping-route fears and price moves. Iraq-Türkiye Water & Oil Deals: Baghdad approved financing activation for Iraq-Türkiye water projects from Sept 1, and discussed expanding crude exports via the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline to offset disruption. Kuwait Denies Role in Iran Strikes: Kuwait’s ambassador rejected claims it took part in Gulf retaliation against Iran. Turkey F-35 Sticking Point: US says Turkey still hasn’t met conditions to rejoin the F-35 program after Trump signaled support. Kuwait Sustainability Push: Soof Wool Mill won a MENA energy award for turning local wool into a sustainable, energy-efficient factory. Qatar Banking: Dukhan Bank won Euromoney Islamic Finance Awards for Qatar’s Best Islamic Bank and Best Islamic Digital Bank. Egypt Energy & Environment: Egypt reported sharp Cairo air-quality gains and pushed refinery expansion and exports, while also highlighting pollution-control investments.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched air strikes on Iran for a 13th straight night, while Iran vowed strikes will continue until “total surrender,” hitting US bases and assets across the Gulf, as diplomacy stays uncertain. Shipping & Energy Pressure: The Strait of Hormuz disruption and renewed Red Sea risks are pushing oil back toward $100 and lifting regional fuel costs, with the US also firing on a vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports. Markets & Safe-Havens: Gold rose on escalating conflict and crude volatility, while crypto traders reported sharp liquidations after Iran’s strikes rattled sentiment. Regional Spillover: Saudi Arabia struck Yemen’s Hodeida after Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked shipping, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Business Disruption: UAE schools are preparing for a new academic year after war-related disruption, and in Bahrain, Turkey bookings fell sharply as travel costs soar. Diplomacy via Pakistan/China: Pakistan is exploring ways to restart stalled US-Iran talks with China’s push, but obstacles remain high. Gulf Policy & Trade: The US-Saudi nuclear cooperation deal is under renewed scrutiny amid Trump’s shifting conditions tied to enrichment and regional normalization.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump says Xi and Putin promised not to sell weapons to Iran, while the US keeps striking across Iran as talks remain uncertain and the Strait of Hormuz risk tightens. Energy & Markets: Oil pushed back above $100 amid Red Sea and Hormuz disruption fears, lifting shipping insurance costs and rattling stocks and inflation expectations. Regional Fallout: Iran’s IRGC warned civilians across Gulf states to avoid US-linked sites, as Bahrain and Kuwait reportedly carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian drone and missile facilities. Diplomacy Watch: Pakistan explores a China-backed path to restart stalled US-Iran talks, and Iran’s envoy called for deeper Pakistan-Iran cooperation on regional stability. West Bank Politics: Israel vowed to strengthen West Bank settlements and reinforced troop deployments after deadly clashes. Business Impact: A global survey found operating costs jumped in Q2 as the Middle East conflict drove supply disruptions and higher commodity prices. Innovation & Trade: Israel and Nigeria renewed research and innovation cooperation, while Orange published its MENA-Africa CSR push on digital inclusion and resilient infrastructure.

US-Iran Escalation: Explosions near a US base in northern Iraq and sirens in Bahrain followed the US’s 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, as Tehran and Houthis target shipping routes and raise fresh risks for global energy flows. Oil & Shipping Costs: Brent pushed above $100 before easing below $100, while marine insurers warned war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits have jumped sharply, threatening crude supply and raising costs for traders. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s interior minister urged BRICS to take a “clear and decisive” stand against attacks on civilians and infrastructure, while Iran and Iraq signed transport and rail deals and pledged deeper strategic cooperation. Finance & Markets: The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% as Iran-war inflation risks persist; Europe’s outlook remains sensitive to energy shocks. Israel-Palestinian Banking: Israeli banks plan to cut correspondent banking links with Palestinian banks, raising payment-fear for trade and wages. Deal & Business Moves: Marriott signed a major Egypt hotel expansion deal; Egypt’s drilling waste tech contract extension highlights rising activity; and IIRIS acquired Dion to expand AI-led risk tech across financial institutions. Islamic Finance: Malaysia’s $1.5bn global sukuk drew 4.7x demand at record-low spread.

US-Iran Escalation & Oil Shock: Daily strikes and Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea pushed Brent above $100 again, reviving supply-route fears from Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb and lifting costs for households and businesses. Markets & Financing Pressure: Bond yields jumped on renewed Middle East risk, dragging up borrowing costs and mortgage rates, while investors stayed jittery about inflation staying sticky. War Powers Fight in Washington: The US House voted 214-208 to curb Trump’s Iran war powers, but the Senate blocked a similar move, leaving airstrikes to continue. Saudi Nuclear Deal Under Strain: Trump said the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement is “totally subject” to Saudi normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords, adding uncertainty for Riyadh and regional diplomacy. Regional Business Moves: Egypt and Russia discussed logistics corridors for grain and petroleum plus seasonal flights, while Egypt also plans Africa’s first virtual hospital to expand healthcare access. Israel Economy Risk: Moody’s cut Israel’s growth outlook, citing defense spending and fragile institutions amid heightened conflict risk.

US-Iran Red Sea shock: Oil prices pushed toward $100 as the US carried out a 12th night of strikes on Iran and Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi tankers near Bab al-Mandab, raising fears of longer supply disruptions. Market spillover: Brent rose to about $98.5 and WTI to around $90; copper slipped as higher oil fed worries over growth and rate hikes. Diplomacy under strain: Marco Rubio said Iran will “pay a very heavy price” without a deal, while Trump framed the campaign as a “skirmish” and repeated threats to hit bridges or power plants. Regional business moves: Iraq’s PM visit to the US reportedly unlocked about $200bn in oil-and-gas deals and pipeline plans to reduce reliance on Hormuz; Turkey’s Bajel Projects signed a 500 kV transmission line deal with Egypt’s EETC worth over INR 400 crore. Travel and consumer hit: UK warned against non-essential travel to Bahrain and Kuwait; Dubai launched a “Dubai Invite” scheme to boost tourism as visitor numbers fell. Corporate earnings pressure: EasyJet posted a 70% profit drop, blaming Iran-war-linked fuel costs and late bookings. Iraq-Iran ties: Al-Zaidi visited Tehran as both sides vowed to deepen strategic cooperation.

Middle East War Watch: The US launched its 12th straight night of strikes on Iran as Trump vowed to bomb “one bridge or power plant” for every attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s military warned it would block all oil exports and target oil, gas, electricity and economic infrastructure if US threats are carried out. Red Sea Disruption: Yemen’s Houthis claimed they hit two Saudi oil tankers and warned more attacks on vessels using Saudi ports, prompting tankers to reroute and adding fresh pressure to global supply. Oil & Inflation Spillover: Brent jumped to a near six-week high above $94 as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb risks returned; analysts and business groups link the shock to higher fuel and logistics costs. Business Sentiment Hit: UK business confidence fell sharply in Q2, with SMEs reporting rising operating costs and Middle East conflict risks weighing on investment plans. Saudi Nuclear Deal Sparks Alarm: Trump approved a US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation framework that could include enrichment capabilities, drawing concern in Israel and among nonproliferation watchers. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan and Egypt discussed Palestine and de-escalation, while US Secretary of State Rubio warned ASEAN that any attempt to control Hormuz tolls would set a dangerous precedent. Aviation Deal: Turkish Airlines ordered additional flight simulators from Havelsan to support fleet growth to 800 aircraft by 2033.

US-Iran Escalation: The US completed its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran, with air defenses reported around Tehran as diplomacy with Pakistan as mediator faltered. Shipping & Energy: Oil jumped toward $95 as investors priced in supply risks, while Rubio warned Iran’s Strait of Hormuz stance would set a “dangerous precedent” and the Houthis threatened wider disruption. War Cost & Budget Pressure: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put the Iran war price tag at $37.5bn and pushed for more funding, as lawmakers questioned strategy and costs. Regional Fallout: Egypt and Sudan condemned Houthi accusations against Saudi Arabia, warning they could endanger Red Sea navigation and trade. Pakistan Finance Bid: Pakistan asked the US for a $10bn exchange-rate stabilization facility to protect reserves and the rupee amid Middle East shocks. Business & Trade: Malaysia’s Food & Drinks Malaysia expo is set to top RM1.081bn as firms adapt to higher logistics and energy costs. Energy Supply Update (Egypt): Egypt announced a new Western Desert gas discovery producing about 40 million cubic feet per day. Markets Watch: Global inflation fears rose as analysts warned prolonged conflict could lift rates and hit growth.

Iran-US War Funding: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the Iran conflict has cost about $37.5bn so far and urged approval of $67bn (part of a wider $88bn–$95bn supplemental request) to restock munitions and avoid readiness shortfalls, as Democrats challenged the strategy and rising casualties. Shipping & Oil Routes: The Strait of Hormuz remains tense while Houthis threaten wider disruption, forcing Saudi oil tankers to reverse course in the Red Sea; analysts warn that if Bab el-Mandeb is hit too, Brent could spike again. Regional Escalation: US strikes continue and Iran retaliates, with reports of attacks reaching Bahrain and Kuwait; Kuwait’s desalination and power infrastructure is under sustained pressure, raising a major civilian risk. Lebanon-Israel Truce Test: Israel withdrew troops from southern Lebanon towns under a US-mediated ceasefire framework as Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met Trump in Washington, with advisers calling it a historic step toward implementing an Israel-Lebanon agreement. Business & Tech: The US Embassy in Cairo hosted an AI forum to deepen Egypt-US tech and digital partnerships. Food Security Shock: A UN report warns the Middle East war could push nearly 19m more people into chronic hunger by 2030, driven by energy and shipping disruptions. Cost of Living: Oil-driven inflation fears are back, with gas prices rising in the US and renewed pressure on consumer budgets across the region.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out its 10th straight night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated across the Gulf, including claims of attacks on US-linked assets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan and targeting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Red Sea Shock Risk: Iran-aligned Houthis said they plan to blockade Bab el-Mandeb, threatening Saudi Red Sea oil exports and raising new pressure on global energy prices. Market Fallout: Brent pushed toward $90 as shipping risks and ceasefire hopes battled it out; analysts warn prolonged disruption could feed into inflation and supply-chain strain. Diplomacy Under Strain: ASEAN foreign ministers met in Manila, urging an immediate halt to attacks and warning the Middle East crisis is hitting trade, energy and food security. Regional Business & Tech: Turkish Airlines ordered 12 simulators from Havelsan to expand pilot training capacity; Emirates rolled out a new economy headrest across A350 and 777X fleets. Finance Hub Watch: A new report argues Azerbaijan’s banking sector is positioning Baku as an emerging regional financial hub beyond oil.

US-Iran War & Energy Shock: Renewed strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed US gasoline back above $4 a gallon, while oil prices climbed toward/above $90 and Brent hit a one-month high as markets priced higher inflation risk. Red Sea Security: Yemen’s Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping, raising fears for Red Sea trade and Saudi export routes even as mediators floated a possible 10-day ceasefire. Diplomacy vs Escalation: Iran said it received de-escalation proposals via mediators, but also warned of “full-scale war” with the US, as US attacks continued for a ninth straight night. Regional Politics: Egypt’s Al-Sisi reiterated support for Gulf security and backed efforts toward a US-Iran agreement, while Turkey’s envoy-to-Kuwait farewell underscored ongoing Ankara-Kuwait ties. Business & Finance: Precious metals outlook stayed pressured as rates remained the key driver; meanwhile, Middle East conflict risk is starting to hit cash-flow planning for SMEs and logistics-linked firms. Corporate Moves: The Eastern Company declared its 344th consecutive quarterly cash dividend.

US-Iran Escalation & Energy Shock: Brent pushed above $90 a barrel as the US carried out a ninth straight night of strikes and Iran signaled continued retaliation, reviving Strait of Hormuz disruption fears and lifting gas prices back above $4 in the US. Fuel Cost Outlook: Diesel price expectations for August flipped higher after the oil surge, with refiners and import-dependent markets bracing for cost pressure. Markets & FX: Middle East tensions rattled global trading as oil climbed and the dollar slid, keeping investors focused on inflation and rate expectations. Diplomacy Signals: Iran confirmed it received de-escalation proposals from “certain” mediators, while mediators work to prevent further escalation. Jordan Remittances & War Burden: Jordan saw remittances rise 14.5% in early 2026, but ESCWA estimates the war’s extra fiscal burden at 0.691% of GDP, the highest in the Arab region. Egypt’s War-Driven Recycling Boom: Cairo’s “Garbage City” recyclers are seeing demand surge as Hormuz disruption tightens plastic raw-material supply. Business Tech & Trade: iFLYTEK launched an AI public-service agent (GuideX), while B2Business Hub rolled out an AI platform to match verified suppliers and buyers globally. Israel Innovation Funding: Israel Innovation Authority launched a NIS 100m push for national quantum computing R&D and a NIS 6m call for blue-tech ocean energy projects.