AGP Executive Report

Hormuz Shipping & Oil: Oil prices were steady as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend amid stalled US-Iran talks, with the UAE accusing Iran of attacking another ADNOC vessel and shipping data showing far fewer transits than before the war. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Washington is preparing fresh sanctions to intensify economic pressure on Iran, while Iran rejects US claims over Hormuz and insists shipping can only resume under Tehran’s conditions. Regional Security & Military Posture: Trump said the US will reduce joint exercises with South Korea, citing Seoul’s refusal to help on Iran denuclearisation, as the wider conflict keeps reshaping defense priorities. Capital Markets & Compliance: Nigeria’s SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties with North Korea and reject transactions involving Iranian financial institutions under FATF guidance. Egypt FDI: Egypt’s CAPMAS said Arab countries were a top source of FDI into Egypt, contributing about $1.7bn in Q2 FY2025/26. Business & Trade Tech: China and Iran agreed to expand rare-earth science cooperation, aiming to boost exploration and processing capabilities. Israel-Lebanon: Israel carried out strikes in southern Lebanon as ceasefire talks with Iran-linked dynamics remained stuck.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran rejected Donald Trump’s claim it would soon declare the waterway US territory, insisting it “will remain Iranian” and only Tehran can open or close it, as shipping stays throttled and fuel costs remain a political flashpoint. Lebanon Security & Economy: A US State Department spokesperson said Hezbollah “bears sole responsibility” for Israel’s presence in Lebanon, while Israel’s strikes in the south killed at least 11, deepening uncertainty around ceasefire terms and Lebanon’s economic recovery. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Reuters reports Trump vowed “never seen before” economic measures on Iran, with sanctions expanding across shipping, shadow oil, insurers and digital finance. Oil Market Volatility: Analysts say geopolitics is driving prices again as Hormuz risk collides with weaker demand, keeping Brent/WTI swings front and center. Regional Business Impact: IATA estimates Middle East airlines’ 2026 loss at $4.3bn, while Israel’s economy rebounded in Q2 after Iran-war disruptions. Turkey Investment & Industry: Türkiye attracted $4.2bn FDI in H1 and pushed domestic healthcare production, including vaccines and strategic medical devices. Youth Jobs Warning: A Phenix Center report flags Arab states’ youth unemployment at 26.2% in 2025, the highest globally.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran rejected Donald Trump’s claim it could declare Hormuz a U.S. territory, saying the waterway “will remain Iranian” and only Tehran can open or close it, while shipping traffic stays near a standstill and fuel-price pressure spreads. Maritime Risk for Gulf Energy: The UAE blamed Iran for attacking an ADNOC-linked vessel in Hormuz, calling it a “flagrant violation,” as Qatar and the GCC condemned the attacks and urged reopening. Diplomacy at the Edge: A U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework is nearing its Aug. 17 deadline, with talks stalled over sanctions relief and Hormuz reopening. Iran’s Economy Under Strain: Iran’s president said war damage, lower oil revenues and higher costs are worsening economic problems. Egypt Investment Outlook: The IMF expects Egypt’s net FDI inflows to rise gradually to about $18.2bn by FY2030/31, citing exchange-rate flexibility as a key shock absorber. UAE Trade Push: The UAE said it has signed 38 CEPA deals and is expanding trade partnerships as non-oil foreign trade hits record levels.

Strait of Hormuz & Energy Security: Iran and the UAE traded blame after attacks on Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping slows and talks stall; Iran says the waterway “will remain Iranian,” while the US readies new economic pressure and Trump reiterates plans to declare Hormuz US territory. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Treasury chief Scott Bessent signals “unprecedented” sanctions next week aimed at Iran’s financial and trade networks, alongside an indefinite blockade push—while experts warn the economic toll is already severe. Market & Consumer Impact: Oil prices rose on renewed Hormuz risk, and US consumer sentiment fell to 51 as inflation fears and business uncertainty deepen; in the Middle East, Turkey’s coastal hotel prices dropped as travelers shift away from conflict-adjacent destinations. Regional Security Deals: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan’s Mecca defense pact frames Gulf security as a regional issue, while Lebanon’s front heats up with Israeli strikes tied to Hezbollah escalation. Gulf Business & Trade: The UAE expands its global trade web with 38 CEPAs, and Kuwait Petroleum signs a $16bn Shaheen Project sale-and-leaseback to fund oil infrastructure. Defense Industry (Türkiye): Türkiye highlights rapid modernization across naval and air-defense programs, reinforcing its growing defense-industrial footprint.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump says Washington will hit Iran “very hard” economically and soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States,” while Treasury chief Scott Bessent warns of “unprecedented” sanctions next week; Shipping & Energy Impact: transit through Hormuz is near standstill after attacks on tankers, with the US signaling it can keep a naval blockade “indefinitely,” pushing oil and gasoline higher; Regional Security Deals: Egypt is weighing legal and constitutional issues before joining the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca joint defence pact; Egypt Macro: IMF says Egypt’s economy grew 5% year-on-year in Q3 FY2025/26, helped by Suez, tourism and construction, though conflict effects may show more in the next fiscal year; Russia-Iran Finance: Iran and Russia discussed expanding investment and financial cooperation, including banking, digital assets and joint projects; Israel Finance Innovation: Bank Leumi will offer crypto trading via Galaxy starting early 2027, marking a first for an Israeli bank.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: The UAE blamed Iran for drone attacks on two ADNOC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Bahrain also condemning the strikes and calling for the waterway to reopen without conditions. US Economic Pressure: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington will unveil “unprecedented” economic isolation measures next week, paired with an indefinite naval blockade posture, while JD Vance framed the top goal as keeping oil and gas cheap for Americans. Iran Tightens Control: Iran’s parliament approved principles for a strategic plan to govern security and development in the Strait and Persian Gulf, aiming to bar “hostile” vessels including US and Israel-linked traffic. Oil & Markets Watch: European stocks were mixed as investors weighed the Iran-war risk premium; oil prices moved higher on blockade threats and supply concerns. Türkiye Economy: Türkiye reported paid employment up 2.5% y/y in June and electricity generation up 6.51% y/y, signaling continued domestic momentum despite regional shocks. BRICS Finance: Iran’s central bank governor said Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on payment links and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The UAE condemned Iran after two ADNOC-linked tankers were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with no injuries reported, as shipping traffic remains near a standstill and both sides trade blame over “blockade” and “control” claims. US Economic Pressure: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. can maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised “measures never seen” to intensify economic isolation as talks stall and oil flows tighten. Iran’s Counter-Narrative: Iran’s Basij chief Hossein Taeb said the strait is under Iran’s management, and Iran’s foreign minister accused the U.S. of “fake intelligence” after Trump reiterated “total control.” Iran’s Domestic Strain: With inflation topping 80% for months, Iranian firms are turning to buy-now-pay-later to keep sales moving. BRICS Finance Push: Iran’s central bank governor said Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on payment links and digital currencies to reduce cross-border costs. Regional Business Watch: Turkey raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 28%, while Gulf shipping and European markets stay jittery on Middle East risk.

BRICS & Finance: Iran’s central bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, with BRICS officials also discussing payment-system links and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers. Strait of Hormuz & Oil Markets: Iran and the US trade fresh claims over “control” of Hormuz as shipping stays disrupted; oil prices slipped on weaker demand forecasts, while supply risks keep prices supported. MENA Deal Activity: EY reports MENA M&A hit $46.7bn in H1 2026, with 390 deals and a surge in Q2 activity led by UAE and Saudi buyers. UAE Capital Markets Tech: Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange becomes the first MENA exchange to provide official “live” market data to major AI tools via conversational access, aiming to broaden transparency. Jordan Payments Expansion: valu Jordan partners with Hypermax to roll out BNPL at stores and online across Jordan. Turkey Tax & Security: Baykar executives top Türkiye’s 2025 taxpayer lists again, while Turkish police detain 30 in raids targeting the Süleymancılar religious group over alleged financial crimes. Lebanon Environment: Firefighters and residents accuse Israel of causing wildfires in southern Lebanon, damaging forests and olive groves. Corporate & Trade Spillovers: Jaguar Land Rover reports sales and profit drops tied to Middle East-linked supply disruption and a supplier fire; UK GDP grows 0.4% in Q2, but officials warn of slowdown risks from the Iran-war shock.

Iran–US Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The US says it’s enforcing a “steel wall” blockade, redirecting 59 vessels and disabling three as Trump again claims “total control” of Hormuz while Iran rejects ceasefire extension talks. Oil & Inflation Spillover: Oil prices edged up amid shipping attacks and stalled talks, while US inflation cooled to 3.4% in July—yet energy risks keep markets jittery. BRICS Financial Pivot: Iran’s central bank chief says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, aiming to expand banking links and reduce dollar reliance. Energy Infrastructure Trade: Turkey is pushing a new electricity corridor connecting Saudi Arabia through Jordan and Syria, with potential expansion toward Lebanon. Fertiliser Supply Shift: India bought 1.1m tonnes of urea from Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria as Hormuz disruption lifts fertiliser costs. Local Business & Jobs: UAE investment in Nigeria jumped sharply as reforms attract more Gulf capital. Humanitarian/Health Strain: WHO says attacks on West Bank healthcare surged, with hospitals facing severe financial shortages and movement restrictions.

Middle East Energy Shock: The IEA says oil supply shortfalls are worsening as Iran war escalation tightens global stockpiles, warning inventories are rapidly depleting and forecasting lower supply for the rest of 2026. Shipping Under Pressure: Oil prices climb again on renewed attacks and Hormuz uncertainty, while the U.S. says it disabled a Panamanian-flagged ship trying to evade its blockade in the Gulf of Oman. Ceasefire Confusion: Reuters reports Iran says it has not discussed extending the U.S. ceasefire because Tehran views the deal as having no official start date, even as Pakistan-linked reporting says a 60-day extension is being considered. Regional Security Deal: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s Makkah defense pact is framed by Erdogan as open to wider regional participation, reshaping security calculations amid Iran tensions. UAE-China Finance: A UAE banker says growing RMB use, digital payments and cross-border services are boosting UAE-China financial connectivity. Business & Investment: Rasmal Ventures backs Yuno’s $45m Series B to expand GCC payment rails; Egypt launches a 2026 O&G bid round offering 14 exploration areas. Tech & AI: Türkiye’s tech market is set to land on the world stage with a surge in AI investment, while MasterCard pushes retail and fintech growth across MENA and Africa.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran’s newly appointed security chief Mohsen Rezai says the waterway stays shut unless the US ends the war, lifts sanctions, releases frozen Iranian assets and meets wider regional demands—pushing oil higher and keeping reopening hopes fragile. US Enforcement Escalates: The US fired Hellfire missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo ship (M/V Vela Nova) in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored warnings tied to the blockade of Iranian ports, underscoring the risk to shipping and energy flows. Shipping Attacks Spread: New reports say Houthi-linked attacks hit vessels near Bab al-Mandeb and in the Gulf of Oman as war talks stall, with casualties reported on an Egyptian-owned ship. BRICS Bank Move: Iran’s central bank governor says Iran is set to join the BRICS development bank, signaling deeper non-West financial cooperation. Oman Energy Deal: EDF-led consortium reached financial close for Oman’s 120MW Jaalan Bani Bu Ali wind project, with operations due in 2027—another Gulf push for renewables despite regional turmoil. Markets Watch Inflation: Wall Street slid as US-Iran detente signals faded; Brent hovered near $90 while traders awaited key inflation data. Business Finance: IHG reported solid first-half performance despite Middle East pressure, while UBA and Mikano launched an auto financing scheme in Nigeria.

Iran-US Hormuz Talks: The US and Iran exchanged fresh demands on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington pushing compensation claims while Tehran ties any progress to US concessions and says it won’t reopen without them—raising doubts that wider negotiations can restart soon. Oil & Markets: Oil prices climbed toward/above $90 a barrel as the deadlock dragged risk sentiment; US strategic reserves also fell to the lowest level since 1983, while gold held above $4,400 amid the worsening standoff. US Pressure Strategy: Trump said economic pressure is the preferred path, calling himself “their banker” and demanding Iran pay for deaths and damages, as deal hopes fade. Regional Security: Lebanon reported an Israeli strike that wounded two and damaged an ambulance in Nabatieh, despite a truce framework. Energy Supply Impact: Iran said war-related damage cut natural gas output by about 95 million cubic metres, with repairs aimed to restore capacity by end-September. Business & Trade: Maersk raised emergency surcharges on Middle East–Africa routes, citing operational strain; Oman’s North Al Batinah business delegation explored investment opportunities in Egypt. Fintech & Growth: Money20/20 Middle East returns to Riyadh (Sept 14–16), while Singapore upgraded its 2026 GDP outlook on AI-driven demand. Corporate Moves: Barrick named Sebastiaan Bock to lead its international business ahead of an IPO split, and Fort Technology agreed to buy 50.1% of Logia USA for data-center fuel integrity solutions.

Hormuz Negotiations & Oil: Trump escalated the Iran standoff by demanding compensation from Tehran for deaths, injuries and “protestors,” while Iran links any Strait of Hormuz reopening to US concessions; the back-and-forth helped push Brent up about 5% and kept markets jittery as talks with Oman appear close but conditional. Sanctions & Enforcement: Canada moved to sanction Streit Group over armoured vehicles used by Russia, adding pressure on defense supply chains tied to the war economy. Iran Command Reshuffle: Iran’s supreme leader appointed six senior commanders across the armed forces, IRGC and Basij, signaling readiness for prolonged confrontation as Hormuz talks drag. US Policy Shift to Economic Pressure: Reporting says the US is “low-keying” Iran—leaning on blockade and economic strain rather than new strikes—while negotiators seek longer-term changes. Regional Security Pacts: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan announced a regional self-defense arrangement, underscoring how the Iran war is reshaping alliance thinking. Turkey Peace Process: Türkiye’s parliament approved a conditional pardon framework for thousands of PKK members, aiming at disarmament and reintegration without a full amnesty. Business Sentiment: A Nexia survey found mid-market firms are moving toward “measured growth,” prioritizing achievable targets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Energy Logistics Fallout: The US extended a limited Jones Act waiver for 90 days to keep fuel moving as Iran-war disruptions persist.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US lifts its naval blockade, ends sanctions, withdraws forces, releases frozen assets and pays compensation—while Tehran insists there are no direct talks, only messages via intermediaries, and Oman talks focus on routing. US Strategy Shift: Trump signals a pivot to economic pressure over military action, saying the US is “low-keying it” and “semi-negotiating,” pointing to Iran’s inflation and lack of money as leverage; oil prices rose on the uncertainty. Security Leadership in Iran: Iran appointed hardliner Mohsen Rezaei to lead the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, as Hormuz negotiations drag on. Shipping & Trade Impact: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd plan to resume more Suez/Red Sea services as firms gradually return to the corridor. Regional Energy Supply: Cyprus’ Cronos gas project is positioned to feed Europe via a pipeline to Egypt’s Zohr and the Damietta LNG plant. Crypto Sanctions Pressure: Dubai regulator investigates Shelbit over $4bn in crypto transactions linked to Iran. Business & Markets: Jordan touts logistics gains (port turnaround 0.6 days; export container dwell 4.7 days) as it pushes to be a regional hub.

Hormuz Standoff Escalates: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US “corrects its behavior,” demanding an end to the war, sanctions relief, lifting the naval blockade, withdrawal of US forces, release of frozen assets, and full compensation for war damage—while Oman talks are described as nearing final stages. US Blockade Pressure: CENTCOM says it has redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled 2, and boarded 2 as it enforces the blockade, even as humanitarian ships are allowed through. Oil Market Jitters: Oil prices stay supported above $80 as traders weigh whether any “reopening” deal will restore normal traffic or just new lanes under Iranian conditions. Trump Pivots to Economics: Trump tells Axios the US is “low-keying” Iran and “semi-negotiating,” relying on economic pressure rather than new strikes for now. Iran Security Shake-Up: Iran appoints Mohsen Rezaei to lead the Supreme Security Council, with Mojtaba Khamenei releasing a rare video amid health rumors. Egypt Investment Push: Qatari Diar launches Phase 1 of the $29.7bn Alam Al Roum development on Egypt’s North Coast. Regional Business & Mobility: Jazeera Airways adds more Egypt routes from Kuwait, while Mactan-Cebu Airport expands international flights (Philippines). Gaza Diplomacy Friction: Netanyahu rejects Trump’s Gaza roadmap, insisting withdrawals won’t happen until Hamas is fully disarmed.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US “corrects its behavior,” demands sanctions relief, unfreezes assets, lifts the naval blockade, withdraws forces, and pays compensation—while insisting it’s only exchanging messages via intermediaries, not negotiating directly. Shipping Risk: The UAE said an ADNOC vessel was targeted by an Iranian missile in the strait; Iran also says an Oman deal on new shipping lanes is near “final stages,” but full reopening still hinges on US conditions. US Pressure & Finance: The US Treasury sanctioned crypto exchanges and a network tied to IRGC-linked illicit finance, signaling tighter enforcement as the war disrupts trade routes. Regional Security Pact: Pakistan says its Saudi-Turkey “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” is purely defensive and open to others, with a NATO-style “attack on one is attack on all” clause. US Sanctions Move: The US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill targeting Russia and Iran, with the House expected to vote next. Egypt Financial Inclusion: Egypt hit 79% financial inclusion in June 2026, with 56.4m active accounts, as it builds a 2026–2030 strategy. Gaza Talks Clash: Israel rejected a US-linked 15-point Gaza plan, saying it won’t withdraw until Hamas is genuinely disarmed.