AGP Executive Report

Sanctions & Energy Trade: The US Treasury sanctioned an Iranian-linked LPG smuggling and shadow-banking network using UAE/China front firms and a “shadow fleet,” alleging shipments disguised as Omani fuel. Lebanon Escalation: Lebanon’s leaders rebuked Iran as Israeli strikes intensify, while ceasefire efforts wobble amid renewed airstrikes. Oil Markets: Oil prices ended the week lower as US-Iran diplomatic signals eased pressure, but volatility stayed high on shipping and Hormuz risk. Iran Oil Pricing: Iranian crude slipped into discount territory for China’s teapot refiners as demand weakened despite tighter supply. Nuclear Talks Hurdle: Iran’s senior adviser said talks are deadlocked and demanded $24bn in frozen assets be released as a trust test. Iraq Infrastructure: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and Kurdistan road corridors, aiming to boost trade and safety. Turkey Inflation: Turkey’s inflation held at 32.61% y/y in May as the finance minister said price-stability policies will continue. Ireland Travel Ban: Ireland barred two Israeli ministers from entering over Gaza-related actions, signaling wider EU pressure. US Labor Snapshot: The US added 172,000 jobs in May with unemployment at 4.3%, keeping the macro backdrop resilient despite energy-cost pain. Business Impact: Fuel-price spikes tied to the Iran war are squeezing airlines and logistics, with Spirit Airlines’ failure cited as a warning for highly exposed operators.

Middle East Energy & Markets: Oil prices edged up as Hezbollah rejected a Lebanon ceasefire proposal and Oman’s Mina al Fahal suspended loadings after an explosion, keeping Strait of Hormuz disruption fears in focus. Egypt Power & Renewables: Egypt signed deals for 1,500 MWh battery storage projects in Zafarana (500 MWh) and Benban (1,000 MWh), including a plan to localize battery storage system manufacturing. Egypt Oil & Gas: Egypt’s cabinet approved four petroleum concession drafts with about $53m minimum investment and drilling commitments, while Chevron began a new well in the Nargis gas field offshore. Egypt Finance & Corporate: Credit Agricole Egypt launched an interest-free 12-month installment credit card offer, and Rameda appointed Sharif El Akhdar as board chairman after LimeVest-linked investment. Gulf Business Climate: OECD warned prolonged Persian Gulf conflict could push economies toward recession via higher energy and fertilizer costs. Regional Policy & Risk: Saudi Arabia and UAE blocked US strikes on Iran, a setback that highlights how Gulf access constraints can reshape military and economic risk. Turkey Macro & Industry: Türkiye’s monthly inflation slowed in May, and the country expanded renewables capacity by 55% over five years. Business Setup in Dubai: Dubai launched “SME in a Box” to speed up licensing and connect entrepreneurs to banking, payments, logistics and telecom services via one platform.

US-Iran Deal Watch: Final talks are still stuck on how to release Iran’s frozen assets, with reports saying Trump won’t sign before funds are formally handled, and a special fund mechanism is being discussed. Middle East Ceasefire Tension: Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, calling it humiliating and insisting any truce must be all-sided, after Israel’s deepest Lebanon incursion in decades and “pilot” security zones. Energy & Markets: Strait of Hormuz risk is draining US strategic reserves toward the lowest levels since 1983, while oil and gold swing on deal hopes and renewed strikes; Wall Street rallied on Iran peace optimism even as investors watch inventories and shipping disruptions. Sanctions & Crypto: The US Treasury expanded Iran crypto sanctions, targeting Nobitex and other exchanges tied to sanctions evasion. Regional Business & Infrastructure: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia discussed reviving the Hejaz Railway toward Oman as an alternative route to Hormuz, while Iraq’s Development Road corridor preparations were completed. Finance & Trade: IMF stepped up support for African countries hit by the Iran-war energy shock; AFC raised a record $2bn syndicated loan to scale infrastructure investments. Corporate Moves: easyJet takeover interest from Castlelake surfaced as Middle East tensions weigh on travel demand and costs.

Middle East Geopolitics & Energy: Iran-linked drone strikes hit Kuwait’s main airport, killing at least one and injuring dozens, while US and Iran exchanges of strikes keep markets jittery; oil prices swing as traders weigh ceasefire hopes versus Strait of Hormuz risk, with analysts warning Brent could surge toward $150 if disruptions persist. Sanctions & Crypto: The US Treasury sanctions Iran’s largest digital asset exchange Nobitex and three others, saying they help evade sanctions and move regime-linked wealth. Markets & FX: Gold rises on softer dollar and Iran-deal optimism, while Bitcoin slides to pre-Iran-conflict lows as risk appetite fades; South Korea’s won weakens on renewed Middle East tensions. Business & Investment Outlook: Goldman lifts its MSCI EM target on AI earnings momentum and flags potential forex/bond relief if Iran conflict eases. Türkiye Economy: Türkiye’s coastal property market keeps climbing (up 20–25% in 2026), and fishery production rises 11.1% in 2025. Tourism: South African tourism firms are urged to push GCC markets, where premium travellers spend far more per trip. Aviation: IATA’s Rio summit spotlights Iran-war fuel shocks, airspace disruptions and delivery delays.

US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain: Fresh missile and drone exchanges kept the truce fragile, with Iran hitting Kuwait’s main airport (1 dead, dozens hurt) and the US striking after a tanker tried to breach its blockade near Qeshm. Diplomacy vs. Escalation: Kuwait expelled Iranian diplomats and Bahrain reported intercepts as mediators struggle; Iran also floated a four-stage proposal while Washington says talks are still alive. Nuclear Deal Sticking Points: Rubio said no final sign-off yet, with enriched uranium and Strait of Hormuz reopening central to any agreement. Energy Markets: Oil climbed for a third straight day as Middle East fighting threatened supply routes, while gold slipped and equities retreated. Sanctions & Tech Flows: US arrested Jamshid Ghomi over alleged smuggling of US-origin networking and encryption gear tied to Iran’s nuclear and military programs. Regional Business Impact: Iraq’s telecom regulator move against Korek Telecom sparked a legal fight, while Egypt’s M&A activity stayed resilient despite uncertainty. Saudi Healthcare Expansion: Akdital plans a third Saudi hospital, adding to Gulf growth ambitions.

Geopolitics & Markets: Oil prices climbed for a third straight day as Iran missile attacks hit Kuwait and Bahrain and US strikes followed, while US-Iran talks showed little progress; Brent pushed toward $98 and investors also weighed higher inflation risk. Rates & Inflation: Euro zone bond yields rose as markets priced a more aggressive ECB path amid the Middle East energy shock and stalled US-Iran diplomacy. Sanctions & Crypto: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s largest crypto exchange Nobitex and other platforms, warning foreign firms could face penalties for certain transactions tied to alleged sanctions evasion. Iraq Security & Economy: Iraq’s PM proposed a US-linked investment and services plan tied to moving weapons under state control, as factions discussed disengagement from PMF structures. Environment & Food: A mass fish die-off on the Tigris in Wasit exposed worsening river pollution and governance failures, threatening livelihoods. Banking & Capital Markets: Oman Arab Bank celebrated a successful $400m AT1 bond listing on the LSE, while Dubai property demand rebounded after a March trough. Regional Growth Outlook: EBRD cut Türkiye’s growth forecast and warned Lebanon and Iraq face deeper downgrades as energy costs and conflict weigh on activity. Corporate/Stocks: Chennai Petroleum and MRPL shares jumped on expectations of stronger refining margins from higher crude.

Saudi-Russia Business Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia will be the main guest of honor at Russia’s SPIEF 2026, with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman leading a delegation including Saudi Aramco, aiming to deepen cooperation across energy, industry, transport and finance. US Sanctions & Crypto: The US sanctioned Iran’s biggest crypto exchange, Nobitex, alleging it helped the Iranian government and IRGC dodge sanctions via a parallel financial network. Gulf Energy & Trade Routes: Iran-Japan talks spotlight the Strait of Hormuz risk, with Japan seeking safe passage while Iran offers reconstruction help for war-damaged refineries and ports. Middle East War’s Business Impact: A Reuters report says US job openings surged in April, but hiring still looks cautious as the Iran war raises costs and uncertainty; separately, Pakistan’s business confidence fell sharply as firms postpone investment amid Middle East tensions, inflation and supply disruptions. Markets & Oil: Oil steadied after Israel paused strikes on Lebanon, while equities stayed supported by AI optimism; in Türkiye, fuel prices were cut as global oil eased on hopes for US-Iran progress. Regional Deals & Investment: Oman’s OMIFCO plans a Muscat IPO offering a 25% stake, betting on higher fertilizer prices despite the wider Iran-war disruption. Sports Finance Watch: Kuwait’s Burgan Club faces tournament prep strain from delayed funding and late visas for Egyptian players.

Energy & Markets: Oil prices wobbled after US-Iran talks hit a pause over Lebanon attacks, with the dollar rebounding and gold edging higher as traders weighed conflicting signals on the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomacy & Shipping Risk: Iran says it will halt US negotiations and threatens to block Hormuz, while Japan’s PM Takaichi pressed for safe passage of Japanese ships in calls with President Pezeshkian. Regional Politics: France barred Israeli offensive weapons from the Eurosatory defence expo and restricted Israeli participation, as Lebanon fighting and US-Iran diplomacy remain tightly linked. Central Banking & FX: A report says India’s RBI may have sold about $12bn in gold to protect foreign-exchange buffers amid the Middle East shock. Saudi Business: Acwa appointed Samir J Serhan as CEO, as the renewables-to-hydrogen developer pushes Neom and Yanbu projects. Oman Renewables: O-Green achieved financial close for a 93MW solar project at Sohar Industrial City, targeting commercial operations in September. Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan and Turkey discussed expanding energy cooperation, including Trans-Caspian transport and joint energy projects. Palestinian Territories: Israeli settlers torched olive groves and farmland in the West Bank, while fighting around Lebanon’s Beaufort Castle continued.

US-Iran Lebanon Ceasefire Clash: Iran says the US ceasefire covers “all fronts, including Lebanon,” warning violations will be met, as Israel orders renewed strikes in Beirut and Trump claims Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt attacks while Iran-US talks continue. Oil & Markets Shock: Reports of Iran suspending indirect talks and threatening a full Strait of Hormuz closure sent crude up 6–7% (near $100/bbl) before some pullback after Trump said negotiations were still moving; equities also swung as investors priced higher energy costs. Hormuz Shipping Disruption: Even with a “lane” guided by US forces, traffic remains far below pre-war levels, with more ships rerouting and turning off tracking systems amid intensifying fighting. France Blocks Israel at Eurosatory: France barred Israeli government officials and limited Israeli defense firms to air-defense only, escalating political friction just as the arms fair approaches. Turkey Business & Legal Climate: A US appeals panel upheld Turkish steel duty challenges, while Turkey’s crackdown on corporate criticism and ongoing regional defense ambitions keep attention on the investment climate. Regional Economy Signals: Arabian Cement reported a 59.7% YoY jump in Q1 2026 consolidated profits; Turkey’s Q1 GDP growth held at 2.5% as markets weigh the Iran-driven cost and supply shock.

Iran-US talks & oil shock: Fresh US and Iranian strikes and tougher US Iran-deal terms keep the ceasefire fragile, while crude jumps and markets price higher risk around the Strait of Hormuz—pushing Brent above $93 and lifting Shell and BP. Energy logistics pressure: Singapore’s refiners and traders are scrambling as Middle East war risks disrupt global flows, triggering volatility, contract disputes and force majeure. Markets watch the deal: DXY and crude firm as investors await clarity; Japan’s Nikkei hits fresh highs on optimism, while Europe opens cautiously. Turkey macro & industry: Turkey’s economy grows 2.5% in Q1; manufacturing nears stabilisation as PMI rises, though costs and delivery times stay stressed. Regional business moves: Elron and Rafael plan up to $300m over three years for dual-use tech deals. Saudi urban cooling: Riyadh prepares a major project to cool streets and buildings by up to 15°C. Transport megaprojects (Egypt): Egypt readies the next phase of the Cairo metro Airport Link, with stations and major investment. Tourism hit by energy costs: War-driven fuel and uncertainty are weighing on Asia’s tourism recovery, with airlines and travelers feeling the squeeze.

US-Iran Deal Standoff: Iran’s foreign minister says dialogue and message exchanges continue, but warns nothing should be treated as final until a clear outcome is reached, as Trump reportedly sent the draft back for tougher terms. Sanctions & Markets: Investors are watching May inflation data and the fragile US-Iran situation; oil has eased on ceasefire hopes, but analysts warn any deterioration could hit equities again. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The US Navy is still enforcing a blockade posture in the Gulf, while Iran signals it will manage and restrict transit, keeping shipping risk elevated. US-Israel Military Integration: US lawmakers are advancing a 2027 NDAA provision to deepen defence technology cooperation, drawing bipartisan pushback over oversight and long-term entrenchment. Lebanon Front: Israel says it captured Beaufort castle in its deepest Lebanon incursion in decades, despite a nominal ceasefire. Iraq Trade & Governance: Aqaba Port received 44,000 tons of US rice for Iraq; meanwhile Iraq’s media regulator faces press-freedom criticism and authorities report arrests in a Lyrica trafficking network. Energy & Industry: Iran resumed gas output at three South Pars offshore platforms after attacks; Europe is weighing a temporary freeze on Russia’s oil price cap as Middle East turmoil lifts energy costs.

US-Iran Talks & Hormuz: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan says a US-Iran deal is “closer than ever,” with negotiations shifting toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and then returning to nuclear talks, while Iran simultaneously pushes to formalize its control over Hormuz shipping routes. Sanctions & Crypto Pressure: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent says Washington has seized about $1bn in Iran-linked crypto under “Operation Economic Fury,” warning Iran’s finances are near breaking point. Military Escalation Risk: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth tells the Shangri-La Dialogue the US is “more than capable” of restarting strikes if talks fail. Energy Markets: Oil prices fell sharply as ceasefire hopes grew, with Brent and WTI ending the week lower; gas prices also eased amid ongoing uncertainty. Regional Business & Trade: Fitch flags Middle East conflict pressure on credit ratings and notes Pakistan’s PSX rallied on Iran-deal optimism; Saudi scales back parts of Vision 2030 megaprojects amid financial strain. Cybersecurity: A Doha expert warns Middle East cybercrime is now exploiting human behavior, not just software flaws. Iraq Arms Control: Pressure is mounting on Iran-backed Iraqi militias to hand over weapons to state authorities.

US-Iran Deal Stalls: President Donald Trump held a two-hour Situation Room meeting but made no final call on a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, while Iran’s foreign ministry says no agreement is finalized and talks focus on ending the war. Pentagon Posture: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the US is ready to restart strikes on Iran if talks fail, even as markets price in some de-escalation. Sanctions Push: Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical networks and targeted an Iran-based scheme that allegedly impersonated US firms to steal restricted military tech. Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s FM met Oman to discuss Strait security and stability, as Trump’s conditions—no nuclear weapon, mines removed, unrestricted shipping—remain disputed. Energy Shock Watch: Global institutions (IEA, IMF, World Bank, WTO) warned the Middle East conflict is draining oil inventories and raising risks for energy, food and growth. Markets: Nasdaq 100 hit fresh records on AI-led tech strength and ceasefire hopes, while oil slid on easing tension fears. Regional Business Impact: Asia-Pacific property and logistics faces higher costs and uncertainty tied to Hormuz disruptions.

US-Iran Ceasefire Call: Trump says he will make a “final determination” in the Situation Room on a draft deal to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz for “unrestricted shipping” with “no tolls,” and require Iran to abandon nuclear weapons capacity, while Iran’s top negotiator warns Tehran trusts actions, not words. Oil & Markets: Crude slid to a six-week low as markets priced in possible Hormuz reopening, with Wall Street extending record gains even as traders weigh the risk of renewed strikes and inflation pressure. Hormuz Shipping Risk: Even amid deal talk, recent attacks on vessels highlight that maritime disruption risk remains real for shipowners and energy flows. UAE Military Role: A Wall Street Journal report says the UAE carried out dozens of coordinated airstrikes on Iranian targets alongside the US and Israel, underscoring Gulf divisions over how hard to push Tehran. Nuclear Logistics: Kazakhstan offered to store Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile if an accord is reached, as the US and Iran continue negotiating nuclear terms. Regional Business Impact: The IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO met to assess war fallout, warning that if Hormuz flows don’t normalize, global oil inventories could keep draining fast and strain fuel security and broader economic resilience. South Africa Rates Watch: As Sarb weighs Middle East-driven inflation and oil shocks, markets expect a possible pre-emptive rate hike, with housing affordability implications if borrowing costs rise. Maritime Security Cooperation: Italy and India launched a task force on countering terrorism financing and plan a maritime security format to support freedom of navigation.

US-Iran Sanctions Escalation: Washington imposed fresh sanctions on firms, vessels and individuals tied to Iran’s “shadow oil economy,” targeting oil and petrochemical exports and warning global traders of risks. Ceasefire Deal Watch: Markets stayed volatile but leaned risk-on as US and Iran negotiators edged toward a 60-day ceasefire extension, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly set to be eased pending Trump approval. Energy & Markets: Oil prices slid on de-escalation hopes while Asian and US stocks hit or neared records; gold also firmed as investors weighed inflation and rate expectations. Euro Zone Consumer Shock: ECB research warned the Iran war could deepen and speed up “double scar” effects on euro zone consumers, reigniting inflation anxiety. Shipping in the Crossfire: Russia struck a Turkish-owned cargo ship departing Odesa, injuring crew, adding to disruption fears for Black Sea trade routes. Saudi Payments Push: Dinero Pay expanded payment infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, adding faster digital checkout and local wallet/BNPL support. Middle East Cost Pressure on Retail: A retailer executive warned businesses that raise prices in a high-cost environment risk going broke, as fuel and logistics expenses bite. Turkey Trade & Industry: Turkish apparel exporters are shifting toward Eastern Europe as EU demand softens, while Italy’s textile machinery firms eye Turkmenistan growth.

Middle East Energy & Markets: The IEA warned the Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption is the biggest energy security shock in history, reshaping global energy investment plans and pushing diversification across routes and fuels. US-Iran Ceasefire & Shipping: Reports say the US and Iran have a draft 60-day ceasefire extension and nuclear talks framework, but it still needs President Trump’s approval; meanwhile the US Treasury says it will shut Iranian airlines’ access to landing spots, refueling and ticket sales, and has sanctioned Iran’s Strait transit body over “tolling” plans. Inflation & Cost Pressure: US inflation hit a three-year high in April, with energy prices tied to the Iran war squeezing household purchasing power and complicating Fed rate decisions. Iraq Health & Food Safety: Iraq expanded slaughterhouse inspections after CCHF spread to new provinces, including Kirkuk, ahead of Eid al-Adha. Syria Flooding: Euphrates flooding in eastern Syria rose nearly three meters, forcing evacuations and damaging homes and crossings. Egypt Consumer Demand: Eid al-Adha travel surge is straining ride-hailing supply in Egypt, while rooftop solar demand is rising as net metering supports household payback. EU Sanctions: The EU added extremist Israeli settler groups and individuals to its sanctions list over West Bank rights abuses. Business & Finance: BlackRock’s global investing chief told Khaleej Times she remains constructive on markets despite Iran-war uncertainty; tanker earnings also jumped as Middle East tensions tighten shipping capacity.