AGP Executive Report

US–Iran Diplomacy & Oil Logistics: Pakistan says indirect US-Iran talks in Doha saw “positive progress” on the Islamabad MoU, with the next round possibly in Islamabad after Khamenei’s funeral. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran warns tankers must use its approved routes or face “forceful response,” while the UN cautions miscalculation risks as mediation continues. Frozen Funds Dispute: WSJ reports the US offered Iran access to part of ~$100bn frozen assets if it drops Hormuz toll demands; Iran rejected the proposal, insisting the strait remains under its command. Gulf Security: Bahrain accuses Iran of 808 attacks on civilian infrastructure and warns of threats to Gulf security. Energy Markets: Kuwait boosts crude output sharply in June as Gulf flows recover post-interim deal; oil prices hover near pre-war levels amid Hormuz reopening hopes. Business & Finance: UK credit card defaults hit the highest since the financial crisis as households face cost-of-living strain; Baker Hughes shows US rig counts rising for a third straight week. MENA Deals: Genel Energy to acquire Capricorn Energy for $360m, expanding into Egypt; McCormick gets $28m tariff refunds tied to Iran-war cost pressures. Travel & Trade Ops: Pakistan grants a 60-day relaxation for certain Iran-bound exports to ease banking frictions. Regional Society: Turkey blocks a US LGBTQ+ cruise from docking, rerouting to Egypt and Crete.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Indirect US-Iran talks in Doha ended without a breakthrough, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan pushing discussions mainly on Strait of Hormuz shipping and financial incentives; Iran’s parliament speaker also rejected claims of IAEA access beyond two sites. Oil & Shipping: Brent slid toward $70 as supply fears eased on talk progress, while Hormuz traffic is gradually recovering and freight/insurance costs are expected to normalize slowly. Hormuz Fees Fight: The US urged Iran to drop plans to impose transit fees on Hormuz vessels, warning the move could derail a nuclear agreement. Regional Impact: Lebanon’s economy minister put Israel’s war damage at potentially over $8B, citing lost activity, material destruction, and inflation pressures. Bilateral Moves: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif will visit Iran and Türkiye July 3-5 for Khamenei’s funeral and talks to boost trade and investment. Qatar Finance: Dukhan Bank won a MENA retail/digital/SME business card award, while Franklin Templeton expanded in Qatar via the QFC. UAE Strategy: Abu Dhabi launched a “Companies for Good 2031” CSR push, honoring Impact Seal winners.

Iraq Anti-Corruption Push: Iraqi security forces carried out high-profile raids in Baghdad’s Green Zone, detaining dozens including lawmakers and senior oil-linked officials, in an early test for PM Ali Al-Zaidi’s new government. US-Iran Ceasefire Talks & Hormuz: Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha focused on Strait of Hormuz shipping and frozen-asset implementation; Iran says partial release of about $6bn frozen funds and a dispute communication channel are agreed, while US officials played up “progress,” but no high-level meeting is expected. Oil Market Volatility: Oil prices swung as optimism faded and then returned around Doha talks—Brent and WTI fell on “good” meeting claims, but later rose when Iran rejected direct US envoys, keeping supply-risk nerves alive. Egypt Trade & Corporate Moves: Egypt handed over AfCFTA presidency to Nigeria, approved extra dividends from state holding firms to support the treasury, and Raya Holding completed its Ostool stake transfer—signals of continued state-led finance and regional trade focus. Türkiye Business & Security: Türkiye expanded mission-critical communications ecosystems via a seminar with Caltta and Novatel, while NATO chief Mark Rutte flagged Russia as the biggest threat and said it is acting with Iran, China and North Korea. Cyber Risk in the Region: Pakistan warned of rising cyberattacks amid the US-Iran deal backdrop, highlighting ransomware and critical-infrastructure exposure as a growing business and national security issue.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Iran says it will not meet top US envoys in Doha, insisting ceasefire terms come first; technical talks continue with Qatar and Pakistan mediators, while markets watch for any Strait of Hormuz shift. Energy Markets: Oil whipsawed as investors weighed stalled talks and supply risks; shipping through Hormuz is partially back, but uncertainty remains. Human Rights & Accountability: A UN rights expert criticized the US-Iran MoU for sidelining human rights protections, warning it could enable renewed repression. Jordan Growth Push: The World Bank approved a $700m loan to help Jordan convert macro stability into private investment, jobs, and green/digital reforms. Turkey Business Impact: Türkiye’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 in June as the Middle East war disrupted demand and supply; security measures also ramp up ahead of the NATO summit. Regional Finance & Sanctions: Region Trade Bank named a new board focused on financial integrity; meanwhile, coordinated Gulf-US sanctions targeted Hezbollah’s crypto-linked financial infrastructure. MENA Corporate Moves: Media City Qatar launched GCC/MENA media insight papers; in the UAE, Al Khayyat Investments signed an exclusive distribution deal with Aujan Coca-Cola for key beverage brands.

Iran-US Talks at Risk: Iran says it will not meet top US envoys in Doha and insists the sides must first settle ceasefire terms, while Qatar says technical talks continue under mediation as Hormuz tensions and shipping recovery remain in focus. Strait of Hormuz Economic Fallout: UNCTAD warns that even with reopening, higher oil, fertilizer and transport costs will keep hitting vulnerable economies and inflation for longer. Nuclear Threat Snapshot: Analysis highlights Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and disputes over whether inspectors can return to key struck sites, keeping the nuclear track highly contentious. Turkey Space Deal: Türkiye’s Turksat and Qatar’s Es’hailSat sign a strategic partnership for the Es’hail-3/Turksat-Biruni Ka-band satellite, aiming at capacity sharing and market expansion. Egypt IMF Support: IMF reaches staff-level agreement for a $1.6bn disbursement, citing contained impact from the Middle East war but warning of downside risks from inflation and tighter financing. Iraq Financial Integrity: Region Trade Bank appoints a governance-focused board to strengthen oversight as Iraq modernises its financial sector. Aviation Demand: IATA says May air passenger demand fell 2.2% y/y, with the Middle East conflict still weighing on regional carriers.

Hormuz Shipping & Energy Risk: US and Iran traded strikes again around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran pushing for lasting leverage as Gulf states expand alternative routes—raising fresh uncertainty for oil flows and shipping economics. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Gulf countries are also negotiating their own “new normal” with Iran, including how navigation would work and whether any financial incentives could replace toll fears. Qatar-Türkiye Tech & Connectivity: Es’hailSat signed with Türksat and Thales Alenia Space for the Es’hail-3/Türksat-Biruni high-throughput satellite, aiming to boost secure connectivity across MENA, Europe and maritime regions. Saudi Business Cooperation: Qatar Chamber took part in Arab-Belgian-Luxembourg Chamber meetings in Brussels, focusing on bridging Arab and European private sectors and partnership building. Türkiye Labor & Trade: Türkiye’s unemployment held at 8.2% in May, while the foreign trade deficit narrowed 15.6% as imports fell faster than exports. Saudi AI Infrastructure: Magna AI and Emaar Executive Company agreed to develop sovereign AI data centers in Saudi Arabia, with potential expansion across MENA. Egypt Tourism Real Estate: NAIA Developments plans the first Swissôtel Residences branded serviced residences at Ras El Hekma, targeting 2026 handovers and higher-end coastal demand. UK Markets & Economy: UK’s FTSE 100 edged up on Middle East ceasefire optimism, while GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 but households still felt squeezed. Israel-Lebanon Deal Doubts: Analysts warn the Israel-Lebanon framework could entrench stalemate, since Hezbollah disarmament is seen as unrealistic. Pakistan UN Pushback: Pakistan rejected Israel’s E1 settlement plan at the UN, calling it a threat to Palestinian territorial viability.

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks: Washington says high-level envoys Witkoff and Kushner will meet in Doha on Tuesday, while Iran’s foreign ministry says no technical talks are planned and insists it’s focused on implementing the MoU—leaving markets to watch whether the fragile truce holds. Strait of Hormuz Governance: Iran says it will manage Hormuz on its own if Oman won’t align on a joint framework, rejecting alternate route ideas and pushing transit fees; Oman, meanwhile, backs “service fees” under UNCLOS but not tolls on transit passage. Oil & Markets: Wall Street jumped and oil rose after weekend strikes eased, but analysts warn shipping recovery through Hormuz is still incomplete, keeping volatility in play. Regional Security: Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm as it prepares for a PM visit to Washington; Centcom’s chief visited Beirut as Lebanon’s Israel deal deepens political splits. Business & Trade: IATA reported global air cargo demand up 6% in May, but Middle East carriers saw a combined 8.9% contraction; Dubai received its first Tehran flight since the Iran war began. Egypt Economy/Industry: Egypt’s Bibliotheca Alexandrina unveiled locally made cotton archival paper for manuscript conservation, while Egypt also moves ahead with privatization and smart-meter rollout.

US-Iran Ceasefire Watch: The US launched a second round of airstrikes on Iran after Tehran hit Bahrain and Kuwait, but later both sides agreed to “stand down” and let vessels move freely through the Strait of Hormuz while talks continue in Qatar. Oil & Markets: The pause cooled crude after earlier spikes; Brent hovered around $72 and WTI near $70 as investors weighed how fragile the interim deal remains. Regional Energy Security: Middle East sovereign investors are doubling down on energy security and critical infrastructure, with 89% of regional sovereign wealth funds naming energy security a top priority. UK Housing Pressure: UK mortgage approvals fell to a two-and-a-half-year low as Iran-war-driven borrowing costs squeezed demand. Sovereign Wealth Momentum: A Bain study projects global sovereign wealth assets nearing $30tn by 2035, with Middle East funds playing a leading role. Cyber Risk: Israel says Iranian cyberattacks on Israel surged in 2026, with no “ceasefire” in cyberspace. Business & Finance in Dubai: Expo City Dubai partnered with Emirates NBD to offer tailored mortgage and home financing for buyers.

US-Iran Escalation: Talks on a 60-day ceasefire frayed after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets and Iran’s retaliatory missile/drone attacks, including on Kuwait and Bahrain, raising fears for Strait of Hormuz shipping and regional market stability. Sanctions Maze: Bloomberg reports the Trump administration’s plan to unwind Iran sanctions is creating a confusing patchwork of permissions and waivers for banks and companies, complicating trade and finance just as energy flows are under pressure. Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran says it controls strait access and warns against “unauthorized” routes, while maritime traffic is being rerouted near Oman—an immediate headache for oil logistics and freight costs. Gulf Security Fallout: Kuwait’s forces intercepted ballistic missiles and condemned the attacks; Bahrain also reported damage, while Pakistan urged all sides to stick to the ceasefire. Egypt Reform Watch: Egypt approved preliminary listings of four state firms for privatization and highlighted a fast-growing cosmetics market, while pushing offshoring and entrepreneurship support. Islamic Trade Push: Qatar’s Sheikh Khalifa was re-elected at ICCD, with a focus on boosting commerce among Islamic countries.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out retaliatory airstrikes on Iran for a second straight night after a crude tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran struck US-linked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait with drones and missiles, raising fresh doubts over a fragile ceasefire and shipping safety. Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran says it alone will manage and reopen Hormuz, pushing transit fees and even crypto payments, while new “Iran-approved” navigation rules and alternative routes near Oman are stoking market fears. Lebanon Deal Under Fire: Hezbollah declared the Israel-Lebanon framework “null and void,” rejecting any linkage that doesn’t match the US-Iran MoU, as Israel and Lebanon move ahead with partial withdrawal plans. Iran Economy: Iran’s inflation hit 88.6% year-on-year in June, with food prices surging amid war fallout. Iraq Energy Finance: Iraq is discussing a potential $400bn energy and development fund with the US to finance infrastructure and power projects. Trade & Connectivity: UAE-Iran direct flights resume from July 1, and Pakistan’s business forum urged scaling Iran trade from about $2bn toward $5bn-$10bn via banking and border upgrades. Regional Business Moves: Türkiye is preparing to restart cherry exports to China, and Türkiye-Saudi Arabia signed a joint action plan to ease customs and expand trade corridors.

Israel-Iran Tensions: Netanyahu says Israel will send a delegation to Washington to press its security concerns over any long-term US-Iran nuclear deal, while he reiterates Israel’s Lebanon “buffer” posture. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel and Lebanon sign a US-backed framework tying Israeli redeployment to Hezbollah disarmament, but Hezbollah rejects it as “null and void,” warning of civil conflict risk. Strait of Hormuz Stress Test: New drone and tanker incidents around Hormuz—plus US strikes and Iranian retaliation—are putting the fragile US-Iran ceasefire under fresh strain, with shipping routes and costs still in focus. Iran Macro Pressure: Iran’s annual inflation jumps to around 89% in June amid war fallout and currency weakness. Kuwait Procurement & Skills: Kuwait opens bids for highway sand-removal tenders (19 firms) and reports 1,711 private-sector training spots for Kuwaiti students. Egypt Business & Industry: Egypt boosts MSME financing via MSMEDA (EGP 79.6bn since 1991) and deepens industrial cooperation with SC Johnson; tourism from Italy rises 15% in early 2026. Markets & Rates: Mortgage rates edge higher amid Iran tensions, while ANZ expects New Zealand’s RBNZ to keep hiking and house prices to drift down. Climate Angle: A new analysis argues the Iran war is a major climate hit, with emissions from strikes and rebuilding set to compound.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The US and Iran traded fresh strikes after Washington accused Tehran of attacking a cargo ship, raising new risks for shipping and the fragile ceasefire. Israel-Lebanon Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-backed framework aimed at ending hostilities, linking phased IDF redeployment to Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese state control. UAE-Iran De-escalation: Abu Dhabi’s foreign minister held a rare call with Iran’s top diplomat, stressing freedom of navigation and full implementation of the US-Iran MoU. Iran Nuclear Talks: The IAEA chief said inspectors will have access to Iran’s nuclear sites under the interim US-Iran accord, though some key locations may remain restricted until a final deal. Regional Economic Pressure: Analysts warn that even with oil easing, months of energy disruption will keep inflation and unrest risks elevated across emerging markets. Egypt Growth & Industry: Egypt is ramping up mining exploration for new mineral wealth while also expanding transport and industrial capacity, including new hybrid SUV launches. World Cup as Flashpoint: Seattle’s “Pride Match” between Iran and Egypt drew rainbow flags and backlash from both federations, while Mohamed Salah’s injury status adds uncertainty for Egypt’s knockout run.

Strait of Hormuz Shockwaves: The US carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo ship, with Trump calling it a ceasefire breach; CENTCOM said targets included missile/drone sites and coastal radar, while the UN paused Hormuz evacuation efforts pending guarantees. Gulf Diplomacy & Trade: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio toured the GCC to reassure allies that security commitments won’t be undermined, as Iran’s proposal for shared Hormuz tolls raised fresh concerns for energy-dependent economies. Shipping Flow Improves, Routes Still Murky: More vessels have exited the Persian Gulf, but IMO/UKMTO processes faced disruption after incidents near Oman, and Iran signaled enforcement of specific transit corridors. IMF Warns on Macro Risks: The IMF’s chief economist said oil-price buffers are depleted and global downside risks rise if the fragile US-Iran ceasefire fails. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel, Lebanon and the US signed a trilateral framework for a first step toward border de-escalation, including an Israeli withdrawal from two areas. Turkey Watch: A Turkish court convicted hotel and pest-control workers over a German family’s insecticide deaths, highlighting scrutiny on safety standards.

Oil & Shipping: Oil prices slid more than 2% as supply expectations beat renewed Middle East worries, even as Iran’s reported strike in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted efforts to restore shipping and UN maritime escort plans were paused. Diplomacy & Sanctions: UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi said Iran’s nuclear pledge needs “very strong” verification as US-Iran talks continue; meanwhile, Rubio told Gulf allies any Iran deal must protect security and keep waterways open, rejecting Strait fees. US-Iran Fallout for Households: Moody’s Analytics estimated the Iran war has cost the typical US household about $1,000 so far, with higher fuel and knock-on costs still building. Gulf Security Demands: Gulf states pressed that proxies and missiles must be addressed for lasting peace, with concerns that the framework deal leaves their security needs out. Markets & Finance: Nasdaq Dubai listed a $500mn Arab Energy Fund sukuk, while Goldman Sachs lifted India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal eased oil and supply risks. Egypt Energy Push: Egypt signed deals for its first wind turbine manufacturing plant and a 2GW Gulf of Suez wind project, aiming to localize equipment and expand renewables.

Strait of Hormuz Security: GCC-US ministers in Manama backed reopening Hormuz with free, unconditional navigation and rejected any tolls or control attempts, while Rubio warned any Iran deal must not undermine Gulf security. Maritime Risk Escalates: The IMO temporarily paused its Hormuz evacuation plan after a cargo ship was hit near Oman, as CENTCOM shared F-16 patrol photos and officials linked the attack to an IRGC drone. Iran Deal Economics: Iran is reportedly floating a plan to charge shipping fees tied to “security, safety and environmental services,” but the US says no country can charge for an international waterway. US Funding Pressure: Washington asked Congress for a $87.6bn emergency package largely tied to the Iran war, plus support for US farmers and the Ebola response. Turkey-US Defense Signals: Trump said Turkey nearly joined the Iran conflict but stayed out after his request, and hinted at future steps to modernize Turkey’s air force. Energy Cooperation: Pakistan and Türkiye signed three MoUs to deepen power-sector collaboration, including market development and digitalisation. Finance Spotlight: Kuwait won “Deal of the Year” for its sovereign bond issuance, highlighting strong investor demand.

US-Iran Deal & Hormuz: Oil prices slid back below pre-Iran-war levels as Strait of Hormuz traffic picked up after the US-Iran MOU, while Washington and Tehran traded conflicting signals on nuclear inspections and shipping fees; Trump also insisted Iran won’t impose tolls or charges, even as Iran’s IRGC warned against an “unapproved” Hormuz route. US Domestic Politics: Trump asked Congress for about $87.6bn in supplemental funding, mostly for Iran-war costs, as Republican lawmakers clashed with him and polls showed many Americans doubt the war’s value. Gulf Diplomacy: Marco Rubio toured the GCC in Bahrain to reassure allies that any Iran framework won’t undermine Gulf security or Hormuz freedom, but Gulf states pressed for clarity on nuclear, missiles and maritime control. Egypt Economy & Markets: Egypt reported 5% Q3 FY2025/26 growth, with Suez Canal activity up 23.6%, while EGX shares edged down and food prices fell; Egypt also signed multiple health, education and green-industry deals with AFD/EU/French firms. Egypt Business Finance: MSMEDA and the Egyptian Exchange inked a protocol to expand MSME access to financing tools, and Copper for Commercial Investment turned profitable in Q1 2026. Regional Trade Logistics: Turkmenbashi port in Turkmenistan is operating at just 25–30% due to visa and permit red tape, even as interest in the Trans-Caspian route rises amid Hormuz disruption fears. Banking Reshuffle: Standard Chartered said it will explore selling its Ghana retail and wealth business after 130 years, keeping corporate and investment banking in place.