AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s parliament is reviewing a bill that would bar US and Israeli vessels and impose fees up to 20% of cargo value, while the US insists any temporary arrangement must keep navigation open without tolls or approvals; markets are watching closely as Iran-Oman talks near a draft route. Saudi Security Watch: Saudi Arabia expects “multiple coordinated attacks” by Iraqi militias and Houthis under IRGC supervision, even as Riyadh says de-escalation efforts are moving in the right direction. Energy Markets: Oil jumped more than $3 after the Hormuz bill headlines, with Brent settling above $82; European shares hit record highs on earnings and optimism around a potential Iran deal. US-Iran Negotiation Tone: JD Vance said talks will be “messy” and take time, citing divisions inside Iran, while Trump said the war could end “pretty soon.” Iran Economic Strain: Reports of Iranians stealing basic groceries highlight a worsening crisis as inflation and currency pressure bite. Business & Trade: Petrobras profit surged 80% on war-driven oil rally; Pakistan and Iran agreed to expand energy cooperation beyond 100MW. Sports Business: Mohamed Salah signed a $19.6m-a-season deal with Türkiye’s Trabzonspor.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman are nearing a framework deal to manage Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, with Tehran saying it’s in the “final stage” and that any easing still hinges on the U.S. ending its naval blockade—while shipowners and maritime groups warn against Iran charging tolls for passage. Market Watch: U.S. futures stayed mixed as traders weighed Iran uncertainty; oil prices swung on deal hopes, and Wall Street sentiment leaned on AI-linked earnings even as the Hormuz timeline remained unclear. Iran Pressure Campaign: Reuters reports Iran has warned Gulf states it will target oil, power and water infrastructure unless they push Washington to stop strikes and pursue negotiation. Business & Trade: CMA CGM says it has completed its acquisition of Lebanon’s Fattal Group, aiming for integrated logistics across the supply chain. Tech & Talent: Google promoted Turkish engineer Koray Kavukçuoğlu to lead Google DeepMind as senior vice president for AI leadership. Saudi Fintech Push: GO Telecom launched a digital lending offering in Saudi Arabia powered by Temenos, targeting retail and micro-financing under the GO Money brand. Turkey Economy Signal: Swiss watch exports to Turkey rose 6.9% in H1 2026 despite declines elsewhere. Human Cost: Reports say petty food thefts in Iran are rising as inflation bites, reflecting worsening household purchasing power.

Strait of Hormuz Deal Watch: Iran says it is in the “final stage” of drafting an agreement with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump says a breakthrough could be announced this week and warns Iran of military action if talks fail; analysts note Iran’s internal factional politics may slow final approval, and any reopening is likely tied to US port and sanctions relief. Sanctions & Aviation: The US Treasury removed an Iraqi airline linked to Iran’s IRGC from parts of its sanctions list, while also announcing fresh sanctions tied to Mahan Air cooperation. Markets & Energy: Wall Street and Europe traded near records as investors priced in Hormuz optimism; oil held around $79 Brent as SpaceX and AMD earnings weighed on the Nasdaq. Food Prices Risk: FAO warns another wave of food price surges is coming as Iran and Ukraine wars, plus El Nino, raise input costs and disrupt supply chains. West Bank Heritage Funding: Israel approved $37m to seize control and develop more than 70 archaeological sites in the occupied West Bank, expanding state control over Palestinian heritage. Pakistan-Iran Trade Push: Pakistan and Iran agreed to expedite their free trade agreement and boost border trade, with talks also focused on investment and a Karachi–Chabahar corridor. Iraq-Egypt-Jordan Energy Talks: Iraq’s foreign minister met regional counterparts in Amman to advance energy and pipeline cooperation, including the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline and electricity interconnections. Iran Retaliation Warning: Iran warned Gulf states that any new US attack would trigger retaliation against critical energy infrastructure across the region.

Strait of Hormuz Deal Watch: The US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump saying the strait could open “very soon” and “we’ll know in 48 hours,” while Iran denies direct talks with Washington and insists discussions with Oman focus on managing traffic and fees. Maritime Trade Stability: Despite war jitters, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb stayed near steady, underscoring how quickly markets react to any change in chokepoint risk. Energy Market Pressure: LNG pricing in Asia edged up as geopolitical risk and extreme heat supported spot demand; Rystad flagged active buying from Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Taiwan. Oil Windfall Politics: Trump renewed attacks on Exxon and Chevron over Iran-war “windfalls,” urging lower retail prices—while major traders like Glencore reported huge energy trading profits tied to the conflict-driven market dislocations. Sanctions & Defense: The US added new sanctions on Russian defense structures and firms under an Iran-linked nonproliferation law, while Germany delivered Israel’s IMS Drakon submarine to boost naval capabilities. Egypt Investment & Business: Egypt retained Africa’s top FDI spot, citing digital reforms and strategic sectors, as investor confidence holds. Tech & Security: US authorities warned of Iran-linked cyber activity targeting water systems; a metro Atlanta utility is still investigating a suspected hacker-caused outage. Football & Economy Spillover: Mohamed Salah arrived in Istanbul to complete a free transfer to Trabzonspor, a reminder that even big-ticket sports deals can move local sponsorship and media attention.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Qatar says mediators are making progress to end the US-Iran war, but Iran denies direct talks with Washington; meanwhile a ship was hit near Oman, keeping pressure on shipping and energy markets. Oil & Markets: Brent slid below $80 as traders weighed conflicting headlines, while equities climbed on AI-linked earnings and hopes for de-escalation. Aramco Earnings: Saudi Aramco reported a 44% jump in Q2 net profit to $32.69bn, citing higher oil prices and rerouted exports, but warned inventories remain depleted. Shipping Risk: Reports say thousands of sailors are stranded and passage rates through Hormuz have fallen sharply, with attacks continuing to disrupt trade. Cybersecurity: Bahrain saw a drop in its share of MENA DDoS incidents, but the region hit record attack volumes driven largely by hacktivists. Trade Push: Pakistan and Iran agreed to target $10bn trade and speed up an FTA, with Karachi and Gwadar on the agenda. Finance Appointments: Lombard Odier hired a Turkey market head from UBS, and Ocorian named a Dubai-based Middle East commercial director for private clients. Policy & Safety: Ireland’s new Falcon 6X jet reportedly lacks an Israeli-made landing system due to its Israel ban, raising operational landing concerns.

Oil & Energy Shock: BP’s Q2 profit more than doubled to $5.7bn as the US-Iran conflict pushed oil and gas prices higher, while Trump again demanded big oil “give some back” via lower retail prices. Market & Finance: EFG Hermes topped brokerage rankings across Egypt, Kuwait, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Nasdaq Dubai in H1 2026, citing expanding electronic trading and stock lending. Cyber Risk: IBM says the average data breach cost in the Middle East hit $8m in 2026, with AI-enabled attacks driving higher losses. Regional Economy: The UAE grew 3% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with non-oil GDP up 4.8% despite disruption from regional war. Diplomacy & Shipping: Qatar confirmed a draft 14-point memorandum to restart US-Iran talks, including a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as investors weigh de-escalation odds. Water Cooperation: Nicosia’s EOA signed a water management deal with Israel’s Mekorot to cut “untaxed water” and improve sewerage and flood handling. Security: Türkiye urged Russia and Ukraine to ensure Black Sea shipping safety after a drone attack damaged a Turkish-owned vessel.

Iran-US Diplomacy: Trump says talks with Iran are “going on right now” and warns Tehran of a “last chance before decapitation,” but Iran denies any US negotiations, saying only Oman-linked Strait of Hormuz talks are moving—keeping markets on edge. Strait of Hormuz & Shipping: Trump claims the US Navy “completely controls” the strait, while Iran insists traffic depends on a temporary Oman route; shipping remains stuck at a fraction of normal levels. Energy Prices: Oil slid to a three-week low after the latest strike pause and deal hopes, with Brent around $83 and WTI near $80. Oil Profits vs Politics: Trump again targets Chevron and Exxon for “too much money” amid Iran war-driven shortages, adding pressure on gas prices. Business Confidence (UK): The IoD index shows UK business confidence slipping in July as revenue, investment and headcount expectations weaken under cost pressure. Regional Business Links: Pakistan hosts the 10th Pakistan-Iran Joint Trade Committee meeting in Islamabad to push the free trade agenda, customs and banking cooperation, and private-sector ties. Local Cost Pressure (Pakistan Fishing): Pakistan’s new fishing season opens after a ban, but diesel and electricity costs keep the industry under severe strain. UAE Growth Move: Whoop plans another UAE office, calling it “critical” for expansion across the GCC and beyond.

Iran-US De-escalation & Oil: Trump said the US will pause a planned strike on Iran and that talks will resume Monday, sending Brent down nearly 7% to around $83 and easing energy risk premiums. Markets: Wall Street extended gains as investors rotated back into risk assets; Europe opened higher while oil-linked stocks lagged. Hormuz Trade Talks: Iran denied US talks are underway, saying discussions are focused on Oman to secure a temporary safe route through the Strait of Hormuz—key for roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. UK Cost-of-Living Pressure: With the Iran war keeping fuel prices elevated, UK drivers face near-record petrol costs and fuel-duty politics are heating up as industry warns prices may stay high for months. Regional Business Impact: Jordan’s money exchange market is seeing brisk activity from Arab tourism and expatriate remittances, with remittances up 14.5% to about $2.1bn in the first five months. Iran Household Strain: Iran’s “survival economy” is spreading as families sell personal items and rent basic work tools like laptops to cope with inflation. Other Developments: A 5.4 quake struck off Egypt’s coast; copper rose on easing oil worries and depleted inventories.

Iran-US Diplomacy & Oil Markets: Trump halted a planned “biggest since World War II” strike on Iran and said negotiations start Monday, with any deal hinging on the “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; oil slid sharply after the news as markets priced in lower near-term supply risk. Regional Shipping & Hormuz Talks: Iran says talks with Oman on managing Strait of Hormuz are in final stages, while Iran’s stance suggests any reopening won’t return to pre-war terms—keeping uncertainty around fees, routes and control. Egypt Expat Investment Push: Egypt’s finance minister says a dedicated investment fund for Egyptians abroad will launch in 2027, backed by easier subscription procedures and a digital platform to speed company setup and link expats to priority sectors. Egypt Banking Deal: Emirates NBD is set to buy HSBC Egypt’s retail banking business, extending its Egypt expansion. Energy Shock Spillovers: UK and other economies face recession risk if Hormuz stays disrupted into 2027, with energy-price volatility feeding inflation concerns. Business & Consumer Impact: In India, EV sales jumped 82% in July as higher fuel prices push demand; meanwhile state oil firms’ June-quarter losses in India were far below earlier government estimates.

US-Iran De-escalation: President Donald Trump says he’s halting planned strikes on Iran, conditional on a “rapid” deal that includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, while Iran denies any pause request and warns of retaliation. Oil & Markets: OPEC+ agreed in principle to a small quota hike for September, aiming to unwind 2023 cuts gradually; the move matters as Hormuz risk keeps energy prices jumpy and inflation fears linger. Gaza Diplomacy: Trump hails a Hamas disarmament framework, but Israel’s objections and unresolved terms leave the Gaza deal fragile. Iran Sanctions & Industry: Iran says it has localized 2,000 sanctioned petrochemical components to boost domestic production, as the US also tightens sanctions on entities accused of supporting Iran’s IRGC. Iraq-Türkiye Energy Trade: Iraq and Türkiye signed/extended a one-year oil pipeline deal routing at least 750,000 bpd to Ceyhan, a key export lifeline amid Hormuz disruption risk. Regional Economic Signals: IMF says Saudi Arabia’s economy has shown resilience in the face of the Middle East war, but warns the outlook hinges on shipping through Hormuz. Business & Cost Pressure: UK Chancellor John Healey vows a crackdown on price gouging as the Iran conflict feeds into fuel and supermarket costs. Tech & Jobs: Israel’s hi-tech sector cuts about 9,500 jobs in the first half of 2026, with AI cited as reshaping hiring and roles.

US-Iran Escalation & Travel Alerts: The US State Department urged Americans across Bahrain, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to “consider departing” or be ready for flight cancellations and airspace closures as Trump vowed to hit Iran “very hard,” with Iran warning of decisive retaliation. Diplomatic Mixed Signals: Tehran says Washington is seeking private talks while threatening public escalation, insisting any path forward must include Iran’s framework for Strait of Hormuz maritime transit. Kuwait Drone Incident: Kuwait condemned Iranian drone attacks on vital facilities and civilian vehicles, saying air defenses intercepted and destroyed the drones. Energy & Shipping Pressure: Iran warned it could target oil and gas fields across the Gulf if US strikes hit Iranian energy infrastructure, while analysts flag Hormuz disruption risks for regional markets. Iraq-Türkiye Oil Route: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year deal to keep the Iraq-Turkey crude pipeline operating, sustaining exports via Ceyhan at 750,000 bpd. Israel Defense-Tech Hiring: A survey found defense-tech startups in Israel adding jobs (+20%) even as broader tech firms slow hiring. Regional Finance: Arab Bank Group reported H1 profit up 7% to $571m, citing fee income resilience amid uncertainty. Egypt Growth Outlook: The Arab Monetary Fund forecast Egypt’s economy to grow 4.5% in 2026, citing resilient demand and improving macro stability. US Economy Watch: US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2 as trade deficits weighed, though consumer spending stayed strong—while economists warn renewed Iran tensions could hurt growth later in 2026.

Iran-US Escalation: The US and Israel are preparing what could be the heaviest strikes yet on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with reports saying attacks could start this weekend and last days, as Tehran warns of broad retaliation and tighter Hormuz closure. Travel & Security: The US Embassy in Jordan urged Americans to consider departing the region, citing a “fluid” environment, possible flight cancellations and airspace closures, and calling Iran “unpredictable.” Energy Risk in the Eastern Med: Cyprus’ push to become a gas exporter is hit by a drone strike on Egypt’s Damietta port, raising fears that the Iran conflict is spilling into new theaters. Markets Watch: Gold has slid sharply since the Iran conflict began, while oil-linked volatility is driving higher costs and reshaping energy flows. Egypt Finance: Egypt’s investment fund industry posted record growth, with assets rising 14.7% to EGP 470.9bn in June, reflecting continued capital-market momentum. Trade Deal: The Maldives–Türkiye preferential trade agreement entered into force, boosting tariff concessions across 75 product lines, especially for fisheries. Regional Energy Logistics: Iraq’s oil minister is in Türkiye to finalize talks on exporting crude via the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline to Ceyhan as Strait of Hormuz disruptions strain supply chains.

Iran-US Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s security chief warns the US will “tighten” its closure if Washington keeps escalating, as the US and Israel weigh new pressure tactics. Energy & shipping: A drone strike damaged two tankers near Egypt’s Damietta port, reviving fears for Suez/Red Sea export routes while Hormuz traffic stays sparse; oil prices jumped and major refiners warn diesel and fuel stay tight. US-Iran escalation: Reports say Trump has ordered fresh Iran strikes as early as this weekend, with CBS citing plans to hit Iran’s energy infrastructure; CENTCOM says it has redirected and boarded vessels in the maritime crackdown. Markets & crypto: Bitcoin slid toward $59,000–$64,000 as oil rose on the conflict. Egypt economy: Egypt raised household electricity prices by ~12% and received IMF disbursements (~$1.8bn) after reviews, while warning oil-price risks remain. Regional trade: Pakistan and Türkiye agreed in principle to revive the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight rail corridor. Security spillovers: UN chief calls for restoring navigation rights and ending Middle East fighting; drone and cyber incidents keep widening business and infrastructure risk. Israel domestic pressure: Threats against journalists ahead of Israel’s elections escalated after an attack on Channel 12.

IMF Support for Egypt: The IMF completed two reviews for Egypt, unlocking about $1.8bn and bringing total disbursements under its programmes to $7.3bn, citing resilience to Middle East spillovers but warning vulnerabilities like debt and financing needs. Cross-Border Payments: Egypt’s National Bank of Egypt and Mastercard launched a USD Corporate Debit Card to help Egyptian firms make secure cross-border USD payments. Gulf Energy Pressure: Iran rejected US claims of resumed Strait of Hormuz shipping, saying passage requires coordination with Iranian naval forces—raising risks for oil and gas flows. US-Iran Escalation Economics: Reports say the US and Israel are considering a land blockade to choke Iran’s trade, while analysts warn the war’s next phase could keep oil and food costs elevated across the region. Regional Trade Links: Iraq and Iran are planning a rail corridor via Kermanshah to connect Iran to the Gulf and Europe through Iraq, targeting major freight and passenger volumes. Business & Aviation: The UAE and Egypt agreed to expand air traffic rights over five years to boost cargo and passenger connectivity. Corporate Results: Stellantis reported stronger Q2 2026 results, with net revenue up 13% and a swing to profit.

Iran–US Escalation & Shipping Risk: A drone attack hit Egypt’s Damietta port, setting two gas vessels ablaze and raising fears the Iran conflict is spreading toward the Suez corridor and NATO’s southern flank. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Pakistan’s mediators say US-Iran talks are still ongoing even as the US launches heavy strikes and Iran retaliates, with Gulf states pushing for de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions & Financial Pressure: The US Treasury sanctioned networks supporting Iran’s Mahan Air and IRGC-linked activity, including an alleged “Hormuz Safe” extortion scheme tied to maritime insurance. Energy & Markets: Oil is on track for a big monthly gain as war risk strains supply routes; investors watch Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions. UAE Capital Markets: The UAE scrapped 15 business fees but raised IPO prospectus approval costs, aiming to cut red tape while keeping listings regulated. Banking in Kuwait: Kuwait banks kept expanding lending in H1 despite weaker import finance, with growth led by construction, real estate, and oil & gas. Turkey Local Crackdown: Detention of an Etimesgut mayor signals renewed pressure on Turkey’s opposition municipalities amid alleged procurement fraud. Armenia–Iran Connectivity: Armenia’s foreign ministry discussed infrastructure and connectivity projects with Iran, while stressing attention to regional peace efforts.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. launched a heavy two-hour wave of strikes on dozens of IRGC targets inside Iran after an Iranian missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, with Iran vowing “punishment” and the risk of a wider regional war rising again. Egypt Port Security: A drone attack sparked fires on two natural gas vessels at Damietta port, raising fears for navigation near the Suez Canal. Hormuz Trade Watch: Despite tensions, Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly held up, though identity manipulation and “dark” transits remain a concern for energy flows. Saudi Growth Hit: Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted sharply in Q2 as the Iran war weighed on oil activity, while non-oil growth stayed weak. Turkey-Iraq Defense: Türkiye and Iraq signed/advanced defense cooperation deals aimed at boosting regional security and counter-terrorism coordination. Energy Transition: Türkiye added 2.1 GW of solar in H1 and set new monthly generation records, driven largely by faster self-consumption projects. Regulatory Tech in Egypt: Egypt’s FRA cleared two AI insurance projects for its fintech sandbox, targeting customer service upgrades. Business Impact: Technip Energies cut its 2026 outlook due to Middle East project disruptions, signaling continued cost and delivery pressure.